We don’t know which Democratic candidate stands strongest against Trump.  Each has unique advantages and disadvantages.

Bloomberg, the shooting star of recent polls, has five advantages that appeal to the anti-Trump party:

1. He is not Donald Trump;
2. He can outspend Republicans with a $50 billion bank account;
3. He has public service experience because as mayor of real city;
4. He has credibility when it comes to the economy because he built a successful corporation; and,
5. He may have appeal to centrists because of his fluid political background as a Republican-Democrat.

Given the lackluster enthusiasm for most of the Democratic nominees, many Blue-No-Matter-Who (BMW) democratic primary voters have rapidly shifted allegiance to Bloomberg, despite his lack of traditional Democratic values.

Will these advantages be enough to unite the overwhelming majority of Americans needed to vote Trump out of office?

Probably not.

Consider how each of Bloomberg’s advantages matches up against Trump:

An Alternative to Trump.  Like all of the Democratic nominees, Bloomberg’s strongest advantage is that he is not Trump.  And trust me, despite the superficial similarities (e.g., another NY billionaire, racist policies, a slew of sex harassment allegations concealed by NDA’s, excuses for not releasing his taxes, disdain for the norms of democracy), he is definitely not Donald Trump.  Therefore, he can count on the voters who will vote BMW.

Campaign Funding.  Bloomberg’s money will mean he can get his message out.  In the primaries, it will be especially effective to define Bloomberg when other candidates’ funds are more limited.  But if money alone can defeat Trump, Jed Bush would be president.  Donald Trump is already well defined; he is impervious to negative campaign ads.  Swing voters will not see anything new in a Bloomberg commercial that they didn’t already know.

Meanwhile, campaign advertisements, especially negative ads, are not effective in getting voters out to the polls. Americans are cynical of politics and turned of by incessant negative commercials.  There is a limit to how many ads a person will pay attention to before getting frustrated by the politicking and withdrawing from the process.

In fact, many voters will see Bloomberg’s money as a danger since he is not accountable to any segment of the country.  He can do what he wants, when he want, how he wants.  Other votes will dismiss Bloomberg as having bought his nomination and trying to buy the election.  In comparison, Trump has been holding huge rallies; he is generating grass roots support and with it, legitimacy that money cannot buy.

Finally, the money Bloomberg spends will be matched by Trump’s war chest, which will bring new negative information to swing voters, which will re-define Bloomberg.

In sum, Trump is well defined and will not be vulnerable to huge campaign spending.  Bloomberg is not known and Republican spending will effectively spread opposition research as soon as he wins the nomination.  Thus, Bloomberg is in a worse position than Bernie, Warren or Biden, who are well defined.

Public Service.  Bloomberg will tout his term as mayor of NY.  While better than a small mid-west town, this puts him on part with Rudy Giuliani.  In contrast, Trump has been president of the United States of America, has ordered military attacks, negotiated head-to-head with China, and pardoned turkeys.  Bloomberg’s mayoral experience will not be a reason for voters to switch from Trump.

Strength on the Economy.  It’s the economy, stupid.  Bloomberg, like Steyer, think they can win votes by promising a better economy due to their superior business acumen.  For voters who believe the that the economy is best measured by Dow Jones Average and employment rate, it will be hard to convince them to switch from pump-it-up Trump.  Trump is the proven candidate. Meanwhile, Americans who see a rigged economy, another switching one Billionaire for another is not a solution.

Bi-Partisan Background.  Democrats have a strategy of compromise and trying to appeal to everyone.  Hillary Clinton’s strategy was to use focus groups to appeal to the American middle.  The result was a losing majority.  A lack of proven values and running on an ad hoc platform will not bring new voters to the polls.

Other head to head match ups with work against Bloomberg:  Trump is taller; Trump has more charisma; Trump is a better debater.  Trump also has tremendous grassroots support while Bloomberg has none.

Bloomberg has advantages in the primaries that could convince BMW voters to support him long enough to win the nomination, but they will not translate into advantages in a general election.  He does not have many tools to swaying voters from Trump and he does not have ability to bring out new democratic voters.  Bloomberg is far from a sure bet; Democrats fear of Trump may end up ensuring that not only Trump wins another term, but that unenthusiastic Democrats translates into loss of the Senate and House.

The BMW voters are afraid and willing to let Bloomberg to buy his way into the top spot of the Democratic Party.  Most of swing America does not share this fear, and will not respond strongly Bloomberg’s candidacy.   Trump will offer a “strong” vision of America, and will label Democrats as without principles and seek nothing except power, with devastating results for down ballot races.