Category Archives: Politics

Smart Money Rejects the Narrative Biden Beats Trump

Markets See Bernie Far More Likely to Win and Reform Health Insurance than Biden

The Democratic Political Establishment and Big Media consolidated around Joe Biden in the days between SC and Super Tuesday.  Democratic voters fell in line behind Joe.  The number one issue on voters’ minds was who can beat Donald Trump.  Biden’s support was led by African-American voters, while college students opted to side Super Tuesday out.

Joe Biden dominated Super Tuesday, making many believe that Joe was most likely to win the nomination.  Next to the Democratic Establishment, the next  most relieved constituent was the Health Insurance industry.

The Market Has Spoken

On Thursday, stocks of major for-profit insurers rose 10 to 15%, compared with the market overall at 4.5% for the DJIA:

  • Anthem (ANTH) 15.6%
  • Humana (HUM) 14.4%
  • Centene (CNC) 15.6%
  • Cigna (CI) 10.7%
  • United Health Group (UNH) 10.7%

Keep in mind that this surge comes when coronavirus is spreading, which will be a shock to health insurance companies.  So while the Establishment has been telling us that Bernie cannot win, Wall Street disagreed.  It has priced in Bernie’s ability to win the nomination, the win the presidency, and pass Medicare for All in his first term to be worth about one year of profits.  This shows that Big Money believed that Bernie’s odd of winning were greater than what the media has been telling us.

Predictive Markets See No Advantage of a Biden Ticket

Another indicator is are prediction markets, where people’s expectations of future events are reflected in the price they are willing to pay for  a certain outcome.  Over the last 30 days, PredictIt has called Trump’s likely hood of winning at 51-57%, but has not reacted at all to the dramatic reversal between Sanders and Biden’s likelihood of winning the nomination.   Indeed, over the last few days, Trump is at 56% – nearly he highest he has been at over the last month.  In other words, relatively speaking, the people with skin in the game give Bernie and Biden equal chances – no statistical difference.

Doesn’t the Establishment have skin in the game?

The Democratic Establishment sure does, but it is no better off under a Sanders presidency than under Trump, since it is funded by the same Big Corporate interests that Bernie is challenging.  This is why the DNC backed such an unpopular candidate in 2016, ignoring glaring flaws in her chances of winning, and allowed Trump to come to power in the first place.

And it appears they are willing to do this a second time, going all in on a candidate weak candidate in order to block the nomination of Bernie Sanders.  Biden was weak among a field of weak centrist candidates, and has largely gotten a pass from the media and Democrats.