Bernie will probably beat Trump.  He may be the only candidate who can. Democrats would cause lasting damage by nominating any other candidate.

State of Play

Bernie is widely recognized as one of the most liked politicians in the country.  And according to the latest (Feb. 10, 2020) nationwide Quinnipac poll, Bernie is ahead of Trump by 8 points.  This is consistent with polls over the last 12 months, which consistently report Bernie defeating Trump.

The US president is not popularly elected; the electoral college determines the president.  A candidate needs 270 electoral college votes  (ECV’s).  The website 270towin.com estimates that there are 248 EV’s in Democratic strong and leaning states and that Democrats need to win 32 of the 86 EV’s in tossup states.  Recent polls show that Sanders already has the votes he needs.

• AZ (11 EV’s): Trump by 5.0% (2016 – Trump by 3.5%)
• FL (29 EV’s): Sanders by 0.3% (2016 – Trump by 1.2%)
• NC (15 EV’s): Sanders by 1.0% (2016 – Trump by 3.6%)
• PA (20 EV’s): Sanders by 2.7% (2016 – Trump by 0.7%)
• WI (10 EV’s): Trump by 0.7% (2016 – Trump by 0.7%)

(Click on the state to see the latest polls. NE has 1 of its EV’s considered tossup not listed above.)

If the election where held today, Bernie would win 312 ECVs, and this is polling comes as Trump enjoys record high approval ratings over (1) record stock market; (2) acquittal from impeachment; (3) boisterous state of the union; (4) bombing of Iran.  It is doubtful whether Trump can maintain these high figures.

Bernie’s number would be even higher if it were not for “headwinds” discouraging Americans from embracing his campaign.  This includes generally unfavorable media coverage compared to other candidates, a perception that the DNC will tilt the primary towards a pre-ordained candidate as it did in 2016 or block Bernie, and outright efforts that seek to thwart Bernie’s movement that includes false news, biased primary rules and a red-scare tactics.

If the “headwinds” theory is correct, Bernie is well positioned to gain an unprecedented popularity explosion should he win the nomination, paving the path to the white house.

The Path

If Bernie wins the nomination, we expect to see a surge in popularity, leading to greater margins for several reasons:

• Triumphant Underdog.  Bernie will be recognized as a David who has defeated the establishment Democrats and big-money donors.  Americans love an underdog as much as they resent the elite and privileged classes.  America’s working poor and marginalized groups identify with Bernie’s plight and his success will help them feel like their time has come.
• Consolidation of the Anti-Bernie Left.  Establishment’s efforts to shift support from Bernie to other candidates will end.  Media will give Bernie more airtime, spreading his message to new voters. DNC will have to support Bernie, at least to some degree.  In theory, even Bloomberg will use his money to help the fight. Bernie will, in effect, be unchained.
• Legitimacy of Bernie’s Platform.  Bernie’s platform is revolutionary and the Establishment has been telling us all along that none of it is not possible.  Bernie has been telling us to believe in ourselves, that we deserve a fair economy and we are strong enough to get it.  By defeating the Democratic field, including the richest man ever to run for office, against all odd, will give new credibility to his message and hope for Americans who are suffering.  This credibility will lay the foundation for marginalized minority, young and working class voters who have historically had little incentive to participate because either mainstream candidates were viewed as representatives of their big-money donors or radical candidates did not stand a chance.
• Not a Democrat.  Some of the reasons it is harder for Bernie to win the democratic nomination that other candidates will be advantages after the primary.  Bernie is not a Democrat.  Among many Americans, being “unlikeable” by Hillary Clinton is not a bad thing.  Bernie has a special ability to appeal to independent and blue collar voters that are cynical about both parties.  Trump won these voters in 2016, but has proven himself as corrupt as any Republican and Bernie can occupy this ground.
• One Million Volunteers Ready to Go, with More Waiting in the Wings.  Bernie has created a vast, grassroots network of volunteers, but many Democrats have been reluctant to join the movement despite their admiration for Bernie and agreement with his platform. The Blue-No-Matter-Who voters will be forced to support Bernie, both financially and with their time in efforts.  Volunteers will reach out to their Democratic friends, family and colleagues to bring them into the tent.  The grassroots movement, now strengthened by a unified voice, will reach out to new voters in the swing states.
• The Convention Bounce.  Anyone who has attended a Bernie rally recently knows that the enthusiasm he movement generates across the country.  Imagine that excitement at the DNC convention.  Imagine the celebrities who will be attracted now that their participation will not be viewed as a rebuff of Clinton but as a real fight for equality, democracy and justice.  We will see marches in the streets and stadiums full of excited Americans. Americans across the country will be funding the campaign now that they see that the DNC and big money is not going to prevent Bernie from winning.

The sleeping giant of America will be finally awake and the country will never be the same.  The unprecedented explosion of popularity will be ignited by victory over establishment political party machines, superPAC and Billionaire money, and the prospect of an a government that finally works for the people “and not just the one percent.”

And thanks to the intense criticism of Bernie in 2016 and 2020 primaries, he is fully vetted.  Americans know he is a “socialist,” yet still beats Trump in polls.  MSNBC and Bloomberg describe Bernie as a communist; Trump’s use of the label will not move the needle.

The Alternative

Bernie Sanders is a political phenomenon and can claim the mantle of leader of the Democratic people. All signs point to Bernie winning the majority of delegates.

Unless one of the candidates surges in these final days before Super Tuesday, the only way any other candidate can win the nomination is through a brokered convention that is contrary to the will of the people.

Now in the best of circumstances, there’s only going to be a small Convention Pop for the centrist candidates.  This is because their support comes from their perceived ability to defeat Trump and nobody has confidence that any of them can defeat Trump.  Hanging over the convention will be the dread that Democrats will lose again.  The will be no enthusiasm to win.  And it is hard to win if you don’t believe in yourself.

But there will be two factors that will make matters worse.  Trump will outshine the primary by bragging about how the Democrats stole the nomination from poor Bernie and will claim the campaign was rigged from Iowa on wards; that they changed the rule to allow a Billionaire to buy the democrats nomination; that Democrats do not believe in democracy and will try to rig elections.  The accusations will appear credible, especially to work class voters who identify with Bernie.

Bernie Supporters Cannot be Taken for Granted

At least a third of primary voters support Bernie; his loss would create a bigger division among Democrats than any other candidate.  This is a problem because Bernie’s supporters by-and-large are not  Blue-No-Matter-Who.  His supporters will be up for grabs or simply not interested in supporting one unjust and undemocratic political party over another.

Establishment Democrats often criticize Bernie for this, but if Establishment Democrats thought through what this means, they would see it is actually a reason the party should support Bernie.  As Clinton has claimed, it was Bernie and his supporters that made the difference between Clinton and Trump in 2016.  And there are statistics to back this up:

Specifically, if the Sanders-Trump voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had voted for Clinton, or even stayed home on Election Day, those states would have swung to Clinton, and she would have won 46 more electoral votes, putting her at 278 — enough to win, in other words.

2017 NPR, citing the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study.

A Fair Primary Is Essential

If the primary is appears to be fair, the vast majority of Bernie’s supporters will rally to defeat Trump  no matter who the candidate.  But if the primary looks rigged, things could get ugly.

The Bernie contingent do not have fond memories of the 2016 primaries:  shenanigans at state primaries; voters not having the chance to be counted; Donna Brazil (now a Fox News contributor) giving HRC debate questions; the DNC refusing to give Bernie access to voter records and other support, and on and on.  Hillary Clinton makes sure Bernie supports don’t forget this by continuing to criticize Bernie throughout the primary.  Bernie supports will have little patience this time.

They are not followers of Bernie Sanders; they are followers of his principles. They are idealistic and believe democracy and equality are more important than personality.  This is why there are more volunteers for Bernie and more money from small donors than any candidate in American history.  They are not swayed by labels like ‘communist’ or care about medical records or what candidate Putin supposedly prefers.

It is not plausible that such Americans would help elect a Bloomberg after another apparently rigged primary.

And to Bernie supporters, it already looks like the playing field is slanted since Bernie was denied credit for wins in IA and NH, cable news headlines consistently focus on second and third place finishers, and the DNC bends rules after accepting Bloomberg money.

Conclusion

The plurality of Democrat primary voters support Bernie, who is more popular with average Americans than any of the other candidates.  If Bernie wins the nomination, he will be positioned as the David who defeated Goliath and will be able to unite America around principles of equality, democracy and justice.

His popularity after the convention will be unlike any in living memory, and his campaign has an overwhelming grassroots volunteer movement that is best positioned to capitalize on the momentum.

However, depending on how the primaries play out, a brokered convention leading to the nomination of a distant second place finisher will discredit the party, divide primary voters, and give Trump powerful ammunition.